The Strait of Hormuz closed on February 28, 2026, when Iran shut it after the U.S. and Israel killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. It stayed closed for nearly four months. The strait normally carries 20% of the world's seaborne oil and 20% of global LNG. Iran stranded roughly 2,000 ships and 20,000 sailors inside the Persian Gulf at the crisis's peak. The US-Iran MOU signed June 17 formally reopens it. Brent crude fell below $78 a barrel within hours — its lowest since early March. But a senior U.S. official acknowledged that reopening "takes a little bit of time, because you know you have mines in the strait." Mine-clearing is underway. Industry expects three to four months before normal traffic resumes.

1. The Closure Was the Worst Energy Disruption Since the 1970s

It lasted 109 days. It stranded sailors. It sent oil to $126 a barrel.

Twenty million barrels of oil per day moved through the strait before February. Almost none did after. Brent crude surpassed $100 a barrel on March 8 for the first time in four years. It briefly touched $126 on April 30 — the highest price since 2022. Saudi Arabia cut production by 20%; Iraq's output dropped 70%. Regional exports fell 60% overall. The IMO's Director of Maritime Safety called the seafarer situation "unprecedented": 20,000 mariners stranded with no exit.

Iran gave some countries passes. It wasn't free. By May, Iran had established a "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" requiring advance authorization and charging transit fees exceeding $1 million per vessel — settled in Chinese yuan. China, Russia, India, Iraq, and several others transited under exceptions. Everyone else waited or rerouted.

2. But Shipping Companies Aren't Convinced by an MOU

Trump called the strait "safe, secure and pristine." Shipping executives are not using those words.

Mines are still in the water, and the industry knows it. A senior U.S. official confirmed the reopening "takes a little bit of time, because you know you have mines in the strait." The shipping industry requires independent verification before committing vessels. Hapag-Lloyd told CBS News a return to normal flows "will most likely take around three to four months." Over 600 tankers are stuck inside the Gulf; 240 more are waiting outside. Getting them through in an orderly sequence takes time even without the security question.

The CFR's assessment is blunter than the administration's. Analysts Ray Takeyh and Elliott Abrams describe the deal as primarily "a ceasefire" — not a comprehensive resolution. The agreement leaves Iran's ballistic missile program untouched and its enrichment capability intact. Israel's Defense Minister Katz said Israel "will remain in the security zones in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza for an unlimited period," directly contradicting the MOU's ceasefire provisions. The MOU's 60-day window is the test; many of the hardest questions come after it.

3. And Iran Has a Fee-Collection Authority It Didn't Have Before the War

The "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" wasn't in place before February. It is now.

Iran started the war controlling the strait by threat. It ended it controlling the strait by institution. The PGSA, established in May while the strait was still closed, gave Iran a formal mechanism to charge fees, require advance authorization, and exclude ships it dislikes — all framed as "navigational services." Iran's negotiators said the strait "will not return to pre-war conditions." Critics hear that as confirmation that the war gave Iran something it didn't have before.

The economic relief is real regardless. Goldman Sachs lowered its Brent forecast to $80 a barrel for Q4 2026, down from $90 previously. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce confirmed supply restoration would reduce cost pressures across construction, agriculture, and technology. Consumers can expect price relief within three to six months — the lag comes from existing higher-cost inventory working through the system.

Where This Lands

The reopening ends 109 days of the worst energy supply disruption since the 1970s, and markets celebrated immediately. Shipping companies say the physical reality — mines, verification, 600-plus tankers to move — means it's weeks to months before the strait runs normally again. And Iran's critics note that the PGSA gives Tehran a formal chokepoint mechanism it explicitly didn't have before the war started. Whether that's an acceptable price for the ceasefire is what the next 60 days of negotiations are about.

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