On February 28, the US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, striking Iran's nuclear facilities and killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz, choking off roughly 20% of the world's seaborne oil trade. A ceasefire held through June, then collapsed when Iran resumed attacking ships in the strait. The US has been striking Iran every night since the ceasefire broke down, completing a 13th consecutive night of attacks on Thursday. Earlier that day, Iranian officials rejected a ceasefire proposal that Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi had carried to Tehran — because it didn't resolve who controls Hormuz.

1. The US Wants Iran to Yield the Strait First (President Donald Trump, CENTCOM)

Iran must publicly commit to an open Hormuz before the strikes stop — and if it won't, Trump says the US can take what it needs.

The strikes are the negotiating position. Trump told Axios he's "close to making a decision" on a "massive attack" on Iran and signaled that a ceasefire isn't imminent. He threatened to destroy a bridge or power plant for every Iranian attack on a ship transiting the strait.

Kharg Island is on the table. Trump said the US "may take over" the hub that handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports — and the US has already struck it.

The US condition for any deal is explicit. In Oman talks on July 11, the US demanded that Iran publicly commit to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open before any ceasefire could move forward. That is exactly what Iran rejected on Thursday.

2. But Iran Won't Give Up the Strait Without Getting Something Back (Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Iran)

Iran says it isn't walking away — it's arguing over what a deal has to settle.

For Iran, the whole war comes down to Hormuz. Iran rejected Thursday's proposal not because it opposes a ceasefire, but because the deal left unsettled who controls passage through a strait that runs partly through Iranian territorial waters.

Iran disputes the story that it simply said no. Iranian state media called the ceasefire-rejection report "completely diversionary and misleading" and said the US proposal was only for a temporary 10-day deal. Separately, Iran secretly submitted its own 10-day ceasefire proposal while publicly pushing back on the US version.

Araghchi is still at the table. Iran's foreign minister has been meeting Gulf leaders in Oman, seeking a framework that keeps the Hormuz question open for negotiation, not foreclosed by a US ultimatum.

3. Mediators Have a Concrete Middle Path — If Either Side Will Take It (Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi; Oman, Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan)

The proposal on the table trades a 10-day calm for a permanent Hormuz framework — but neither Washington nor Tehran has accepted it.

The truce idea is specific. A coalition of Qatari, Egyptian, Omani, and Pakistani officials proposed a ceasefire window to negotiate a lasting Hormuz arrangement. Two ideas are in play: a "middle corridor" — a neutral shipping lane between Omani-controlled and Iranian-controlled waters — and a system where Iran collects "reasonable service fees" for maritime security in its zone.

Neither side has said yes. Both sides are using continued strikes to gain leverage before agreeing to anything. The mediators have presented their proposal to both sides and are still waiting.

4. Still, the Costs Are Mounting and the Math Isn't Working (Sens. Murphy, Shaheen, Schumer; Rep. Khanna)

A majority of Americans say the war was a mistake, and congressional Democrats are using budget levers to force an end.

57% of Americans say the war was a mistake. An Economist/YouGov poll conducted July 10–13 found 57% of American adults believe the decision to go to war with Iran was wrong. Democrats cited those numbers as they moved to block the annual defense funding bill and push for legal guardrails on the war's scope.

The costs are real. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told the Senate Appropriations Committee on July 21 that the war has cost $37.5 billion so far. The Pentagon's internal estimate adds aircraft, base repairs, and weapons replenishment and gets to $80–100 billion. The war has killed 18 US service members and wounded more than 480, per Pentagon casualty data updated July 22.

A ground campaign would be a disaster. Military analysts told The Hill that going into Iran "in extreme summer heat against a fully mobilized military and a population that has largely rallied around the war effort would be an extraordinary gamble practically guaranteed to be a historic disaster." Sen. Chris Murphy said Trump has "frighteningly lost control of this war."

Where This Lands

Iran rejected Thursday's deal because the Hormuz sovereignty question isn't in it. Trump says Iran needs more strikes, not a ceasefire, and is weighing a major escalation at Kharg Island. Regional mediators — Oman, Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan, and Iraqi PM al-Zaidi — have a concrete proposal on the table: a 10-day truce with a "middle corridor" framework. Neither side has taken it. The mediators' corridor proposal is the only concrete path to a deal right now.

Sources