In March, President Trump signed an executive order requiring the U.S. Postal Service to only deliver mail ballots to voters on a federal citizenship list compiled by the Department of Homeland Security. States that don't hand over their voter rolls would risk having mail ballots withheld and could lose federal funding. Multiple federal courts blocked the order as unconstitutional. On July 27, the Trump administration asked the Supreme Court to step in and let the order take effect while litigation continues. SCOTUS set August 3 — today — as the deadline for the 23 states challenging the order to respond, at 4 p.m. EDT. The court hasn't ruled yet. November midterms are less than 100 days away.

1. The Administration and Allied States (Solicitor General D. John Sauer, 12 Republican-led states)

Directing USPS to verify voters is within the president's power over his own agencies.

The order doesn't touch state elections. Solicitor General D. John Sauer told the Supreme Court the EO is "an intra-branch directive from the president to his subordinates" — it governs what a federal postal agency does, not how states run their elections. Twelve Republican-led states filed in support, arguing states that want mail delivery can simply cooperate.

Federal voter lists would ensure only citizens get mail ballots. That's the administration's argument: the EO doesn't restrict voting, it restricts who USPS delivers to. Sauer called the court orders blocking it "extraordinary" and said they "flout settled" judicial doctrines.

2. But 23 States Say Trump Can't Do This (Democratic Attorneys General, ACLU, Democracy Docket)

The president doesn't get to decide who receives a mail ballot.

The Constitution gives that power to the states. Article I gives Congress — not the president — authority over federal election procedures, and it leaves the day-to-day administration to the states. Judge Indira Talwani ruled on June 25 that the Constitution reserves voter eligibility to the states alone. Twenty-three states, including Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, challenged the order immediately.

Mail fraud is nearly nonexistent. The Brookings Institution found fraud in roughly 0.000043% of mail ballots — about 4 cases per 10 million votes. Oregon has used universal mail voting since 2000 and logged about a dozen documented fraud cases total.

A 2021 court settlement says USPS must deliver all mail ballots. Judge Emmet Sullivan ruled the EO violates USPS's settlement with the NAACP, which required the Postal Service to "ensure mail-in ballots are delivered and counted" through 2028. Democracy Docket attorney Marc Elias called the EO "a massive and unconstitutional voter suppression effort" to give Trump the power to decide who gets a ballot.

3. Even Supporters Can't Make It Work Before November (USPS, First Circuit, Brennan Center)

Even if Trump wins at SCOTUS, there's no time to build these systems before November.

USPS itself warned a split system would cause chaos. The Postal Service's legal team said delivering ballots in some states while refusing them in others would produce "operational confusion" and reduce efficiency. USPS has been following the court orders blocking the EO and isn't moving on the rule.

Courts aren't supposed to change election rules this close to Election Day. The Purcell principle — courts' longstanding reluctance to upend election procedures near an election — could push SCOTUS to leave the injunctions in place regardless of its view on Trump's legal theory. The First Circuit used exactly that reasoning when it rejected the administration's stay request on July 26, warning implementation would "sow confusion and threaten disenfranchisement." About 30% of voters — 48 million people — cast mail ballots in 2024.

Where This Lands

The administration says it's directing its own postal agency. Twenty-three states say that's a constitutional end-run around elections the Constitution left to the states. Every federal court that's reviewed the order has blocked it. SCOTUS gets the states' responses today, and it could act at any time. Whatever it decides, states and USPS will be scrambling to adjust with the midterms already in sight.

Sources