The Spurs are in the NBA Finals for the first time since 2014, down 2-1 to the Knicks after a 115-111 Game 3 win at Madison Square Garden Monday night. Victor Wembanyama, 22, posted 32 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, and 3 blocks on 72.9% true shooting; De'Aaron Fox hit a 16-foot step-back to ice it. Game 4 is today at MSG, with the Knicks favored by 2.5. The Spurs reached the Finals by surviving Portland, Minnesota, and a 7-game Western Conference Finals against defending champion Oklahoma City after trailing 3-2. Opta now gives San Antonio a 36.9% chance of winning the title; the Knicks went from -500 favorites to -190.

1. Wembanyama Just Took Over the Series (ESPN, NBA.com, Spurs camp)

The Game 3 line was 32 points on 72.9% true shooting, plus 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, 3 blocks.

The 22-year-old just put up a Finals stat line few players in any era can match. 32 points on 72.9% true shooting, with 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, and 3 blocks. Game 1 he shot 6 for 21. Game 2 he turned it over late and missed at the buzzer. Game 3 he scored from anywhere, at the rim, mid-range, the line, and quieted MSG for most of the second half.

Wembanyama and Stephon Castle just made history at age 22. They're the first pair in NBA history with two players 22 or younger to each score 22+ points in a Finals game. Rookie Dylan Harper, son of five-time champion Ron Harper Sr., has been the lineup glue: Spurs outscore Knicks by 15.3 points per 100 possessions when Harper is on the floor with Wembanyama. The youngest core in the Finals just won a Finals game on the road.

2. The Knicks Are Still Winning (NPR, Knicks fans, betting markets)

Up 2-1. -190 favorites. Jalen Brunson keeps hitting the clutch shots.

The Knicks are still up 2-1 in a series they were heavy favorites to win. Brunson had 30 in Game 1 and the go-ahead free throw with 9.5 seconds left in Game 2. Karl-Anthony Towns has been a problem the Spurs have not solved: 18 and 12 in Game 1, 21 and 13 in Game 2. The Knicks forced the Wembanyama turnover that decided Game 2 and the missed jumper at the buzzer.

The Knicks are -190 favorites because the math is brutal for San Antonio. To win the title, the Spurs now have to win three of the next four. Only the 2016 Cavaliers have ever come back from 3-1 in the Finals. Lose Game 4 and the Spurs are facing math that has never been beaten in Finals history. The Wembanyama 32-point game is a story; the series scoreboard still says New York.

3. The Spurs Comeback Playbook Is Real (Opta, structural)

This is the team that came back from 3-2 vs the defending champs.

The Spurs reached the Finals by surviving a Game 7 against the defending champion Thunder. They trailed Oklahoma City 3-2 in the Western Conference Finals and won twice in a row, including a Game 7 on the road. That experience says something the Game 1 and Game 2 losses don't: this group has done this. The Game 3 comeback from a 7-point halftime deficit at MSG was a continuation of the pattern, not a reset.

The 36.9% Opta number is higher than the conventional wisdom suggests. Five times in non-Finals playoffs, a team with home-court advantage has surrendered the first two games and still won the series. No team has ever done it specifically in the Finals after blowing the first two at home, but the structural pattern of a comeback is real, not unprecedented. The Spurs are 22-year-old stars who've already won a Game 7 on the road this postseason. The question for Wednesday is whether they can do it twice in two weeks.

Where This Lands

The Spurs are in their first Finals since 2014 and just stole a game at MSG behind a 32-point Wembanyama. Some say the Game 3 stat line plus the OKC Game 7 history mean the Spurs have actually been built for this exact moment. Others say the Knicks are still genuine favorites, Brunson keeps hitting the clutch shots, and only the 2016 Cavs have ever come back from 3-1 in the Finals. Game 4 Wednesday at MSG is the test of whether Game 3 was the swing or just the outlier.

Sources